Many many years ago, I started writing about my view regarding my long-term outlook for gold and the stock market SLOWLY syncing up vs the bond market. Those posts are below, first from 2014, then from 2015. So for all of the stupid stupid totally wrong BS from goldbugs for YEARS claiming that the stock market crash will cause gold to soar. (However, am I seeing a stock market change for now? – an update on my stock market view will be posted shortly.) And what has actually happened, even from the early 2016 lows – rallies, as both have moved up.
Here, from 12/9/15, done EIGHT DAYS from the major low discussing these things. Also in the post I discussed my view of interest rates SOARING, but stressing that first would be on the short-end of the yield curve (which was 100% correct), with the long-end soaring down the road. (Which I then began getting very bearish on the 30 year bond, and wrote many posts about it, like here, and that post was done RIGHT SMACK into the bond market top – discussing how to short bonds, with exact specific price to do that short sale. Totally nailed the timing on that.)
So in that December ’15 post, I discussed my view of rates SOARING on the short-end, yet also being time to buy gold, with the major low. And totally 100% nailed the timing of that. Point is, these rate increases since the Fed started raising rates in Dec ’15, I was WELL AWARE of that. Yet still put out my gold buy recommendation. So all of these incompetent theories about every time gold sells off, oh it must be because of the rates. And to add, I also did several posts, WELL AHEAD OF TIME, about the Fed going on pause. So I was well aware of what the Fed would be doing, and adjusted my bond bearishness accordingly. Did those posts, before everyone was SURPRISED when the Fed basically said that in Dec ’18.
Again, this website is always WAY AHEAD of almost everyone in this business.
August 20, 2014:
For 5 plus years, the geniuses who have claimed that the stock market is about to crash — they are now getting more frantic and strident. There is almost a 0% chance of a crash anytime soon. Since 2009, my friends at ____ have called me every nasty name, as I repeatedly stated that the March 2009 low in stocks is a generational low and stocks are going massively higher. The Dow is eventually headed to 100K, but with several huge selloffs along the way.
Gold currently is in the accumulation phase. Accumulation is simply a market going from weak hands to very strong hands. A market under accumulation resembles a filled beach ball. You can push it down, but it pops right back up, because the demand is overpowering the supply. So, listen to Andrew and accumulate gold into weakness only.
Gold will continue to trade in this range, but around this time next year gold will do a major catch up to the outperformance of the Dow. Continued patience and please ignore the perpetual doomsayers.
Dec 9, 2015 excerpts:
My last update 5 weeks ago, my intermediate outlook changed to bearish on stocks, for the first time in over 4 years. Since then, I’m even more bearish. While still very bullish long term, stocks need a large selloff to reset the bull market and build a solid foundation for Dow 100,000 well down the road. A 25% selloff is a decent possibility. Both stocks and gold will eventually rise together, courtesy of the upcoming bond market demolition.
I’ve been urging listeners to avoid buying gold since Sep. 2011, except for a trade. However, that situation is slowly changing. In the last update, I said I still expect more new lows in gold, which has occurred. So now what? Gold is definitely under accumulation by big capital, despite the obsession with gold manipulation, they’re using weakness to buy. While I still expect sub $1000 gold, so does just about everyone else now, even some of the most bullish gold bugaroos. So begin to SLOWLY accumulate gold, but do NOT buy into the price rallies.
While gold itself is not nearly as bullish as it was into the 19 1/2 year bear market low of $248 on July, 20, 1999 – the gold miners are that bullish. Something to ponder.
Quickly on oil, my long held belief remains we will see sub $35 oil before a major low will begin forming
Lastly on bonds. And its a doozy. In the Sep. update, I said the Fed would be raising rates soon, even though, all of the way over paid famous talking heads were claiming the Fed would not raise rates, maybe ever..The reason is that my technical work convinced me the short term interest rates were about to explode higher. And explode they have – 3 month, 6 month and 1 year TBills are at 7 year highs – up by 10 -20 times from the lows. And to repeat the Fed does NOT lead the bond market, they FOLLOW. And when the Fed does catch up to the bond market, short term rates will begin to move even higher. Expect to see a flat yield curve within 18 months as the 10 year yield will stay stubbornly low for a while before also exploding higher. Andrew and I have both been warning about the coming junk bond market disaster – junk bonds today hit new 6 year lows.