Like many thing in markets, it took me way too long to figure this one out also, namely – it’s the entry point, not the outcome: The approach to markets taken by most people will put us way behind before we even get started – like putting a 50 pound weight belt on an Olympic sprinter and expecting him/her to overcome it. So many of us have an approach to markets which is totally focused on the (eventual) outcome. But the eventual outcome (often many years down the road) is fraught with much uncertainty, is unlikely for many people to be anywhere near accurate, and even if we were to get close to being accurate, markets don’t ever get “there” in a straight line anyways – they zig and zag, sometimes violently. So by only focusing on that outcome, on the way there we will miss some fantastic profit taking opportunities. And most people don’t even factor into the equation, what if they’re wrong about their whole thesis to begin with. And lastly, we have zero control over the outcome anyways – zero. So wouldn’t it make much more sense to put most of our focus into getting really, really good at the one thing in markets over which we have virtually total control – the entry and the exit.
And that then brings us to a much better approach – spending way less time on something we have no control over, and way more time on something we have almost total control over – the great entry point. This is a fairly long and complex issue, so the best way to explain it is to just keep rolling it out over time and hopefully I’ll be able to make it make sense.