How many times have I repeated this since December 2015 – gold is in a secular bull market. But I never buy gold into strength. So now that the stragglers/emotional investors are figuring out that gold is bullish, once again it’s good to point out – when we were buying gold at $1214, and the miners, hardly anybody wanted gold then. That’s because their useless moving averages were pointing down, the jobs number that Friday morning was “positive”, the Fed would be more aggressive in raising rates, the “support was broken”, there was no “clarity” on the direction, gold was not “holding up well”, and on and on. And that is the exact sentiment and also the technical situation that “says” opportunity to me, so I bought.
Now the MAs are pointing up, gold is above its useless 200 day, and the “coast is clear”. Every time I do a big picture post about the secular bull market in gold, and my reasons for finally buying gold in December 2015, people tell me their views about real interest rates, manipulation, the $, and every other useless theory about gold. And they miss every opportunity to buy gold at the “best” times, because they sit around all day with their theories. Of course the same amateur thought process was going on with the weak hands right before the US election, when there was a very bullish outlook for gold, because of “uncertainty” regarding the election. My view was totally different, and gold was not at all bullish, and selling or shorting above $1305 was the plan.
So here we are moving along in 2017, and gold is getting closer and closer to a trending move higher. But in the meantime, my approach to gold (check the recaps) has been just trading the range. That would also include the miners. This trading range has stymied a lot of folks. At the bottoms, the amateur calls were for a “breakdown” and at the highs they were claiming “breakout”. Once again my view and trading (here’s the full trading recap for June) have been the opposite.
The following video is from April and it is just as pertinent now: