The 5/18 premarket is below. This business is not about magic, trading systems, hot stock tips, economic theories, any theories actually, high IQs, the Federal Reserve – it is 100% about hard work (consistent hard work), mental toughness, filtering out all the noise, and probabilities and how to work with the probability structure:
This was posted yesterday, for those who did not see it –
“The bond market is getting clobbered. TLT at new lows, as I stated Tuesday:
“This sounds like a recording, but it’s because the trend is up – the 1, 2, 3, 5 year T-Bills are all ar more new highs since the 2008 highs in yield. And the 10 year yield has now gone to a new multi-year high at 3.05%. That 116.50 is a formidable support on TLT, it will give way, and really then will get a lot of institutions to question their belief in a low rate environment remaining in place. I have kept a small TLT put position, and have no plans to change that.”
I’m keeping my put position. For people with a full position, different story. Yes we could see a spring out of here, but to me, it will all be part of redistribution, as it has been since the first big low in the bear market. That low was in early Dec 2016. The rally out of there – redistrib. All the rallies since – redistrib. And with less and less powerful waves out of the low. Study the charts, look at what I’m discussing.
The bond market, and this is not a high probability at all, but we could see a “crash” selloff like in Nov/Dec 2016. Bonds move very slowly usually, and will not crash so to speak, but they can have multi-week runs – RUNNER STOCK, right? Are you studying this stuff? To me, the small stocks and the index options, are by far the best teachers, even if not trading them.
And with that, bought the spike low spring in SPY this morning, looking for a “throwback rally”. And using pure supp/res, next week’s calls 273, I left a fair amount of profit on the table, selling 1/2 at 272.25 and then 272.75. The area above 273 is concerning to me. QQQ above 169.50. I (almost) always exit too early, but hate exiting too late, winner or loser same approach.
And small stocks, some real crappers rallying today. CARV is junk, but pure daytrading always opportunities. I tried to do a bounce trade after the #1 EA at around 7.75. My order was at 5,70, did not get filled. My parameter was a bounce back to the high, so very favorable risk/reward. It did go to a new high, and more EA, it is in the #3 area now. BTW, no shares to short which I could find. That will likely be the better trade with this thing.
Are you studying the potential opportunities in bounce trades? I’ve discussed these on and on. They can be for ANY time-frames. And yes, they are very tough. This business of trading has never been easy for me, I’ve always struggled, made tons of mistakes, and have had to “plow thru”. You either want it or you do not. It’s really that “simple”. Studying, studying,,,,
BTW, trading is about patterns (setups), NOT chart patterns, trading patterns. Huge difference. BLNK has the exact trading pattern 2 days in a row – exact.
Everything in trading is about probabilities, hence trading patterns/setups. With the smaller stocks, with the real junk ones like CARV, a runner on day one of the move, which closes strongly (upper 25% of the day’s range) has a very high probability of rallying the next day at least early on. On day two also, but less probability, day three less again. And on day 4, that is when the probability of the potential short starts to ramp up. Especially when it opens red and holds there thru the morning. And again with time-frames, there is actually, on a sort of scalp type of trade, a really good setup right near the open of a spike low buy on a gap lower.
CARV was day one yesterday. BLNK has been doing the other side of the PROBABILITIES. It has not broken, even tho the original run day, this time, was on 5/7. And it even had a huge EA on 5/8. It’s all probabilities.
Bond yields went to more multi-year/decade highs yesterday. There is nobody who has been as adamant as I about a multi-decade bear market in bonds, even thru the intermediate price rallies since 12/16. Anyone who has believed in my work would have maintained an overall bearish perspective. TLT more new lows yesterday. Yields having a bit of a backup today, but the 10 year reached 3.125% and the 30 hit 3.27%. Several months ago, I gave some point and figure yield targets. And again, we are in spring territory for TLT, keep that in mind. Bounce very possible.
On the 4/2 stock list which you guys all had access to, two of the sectors were specialty retailers and energy shares, and what a run those sectors have had for any of you who did the work with that list which I did the “filtering” for:
“I’m going thru charts, pondering, studying earnings, considering sectors, looking for what will be the leaders coming out of the “correction” in the market. Those specialty retailers I’ve been discussing, also some oil stocks with crude in that big accum area, and some green tech stocks. Also tech and IPOs. And the ones with relative strength. I will go more in depth with these, put them into sectors, but some ideas for now.
BFAM, RSPP, MEOH, VIPS, VNOM, LE, LULU, URBN, AEO, ANF, GES, CTRN, M, NWY, PEN, TEAM, DBX, FIVE, FND, SQ, SGH, WHD, IQ, FUSZ, AMAG, ETFC, INSM, MU, ETSY, CREE, INTC, OBE, LOXO, CLNE, GWPH, ARQL, WDAY, CLDR, EC.”
In general that list was about earnings growth/potential, rel strength, and accum/reaccum.
What a list, especially with the stock market not in a current uptrend part of the overall massive bull. Seriously consider that aspect of it.
Just to name a few, and these will be continually updated with developments, since the list, (at the arrows for the list) WHD up 40%:
M, arrow, is at new highs:
LOXO, up 50%, and blasting to more all-time highs. LOXO had cancer news:
GWPH up 40%:
PEN up 30%, more new highs:
A holding of mine for 6 months, IMMU, discussed 100x, more new highs, so many opportunities to buy this thing over the last year:
Some other energy shares for a watchlist, EPE and EGY discussed several times recently, several springs. Nice accum areas, SOSes, upside of accum, also WTI, SN not as big of accum, HP has been/was a stellar performer during crude oil’s selloff and then accum (now uptrend):