Premarket Repost 5/18

The 5/18 premarket is below. This business is not about magic, trading systems, hot stock tips, economic theories, any theories actually, high IQs, the Federal Reserve – it is 100% about hard work (consistent hard work), mental toughness, filtering out all the noise, and probabilities and how to work with the probability structure:

 

From 5/18:

 

This was posted yesterday, for those who did not see it –

“The bond market is getting clobbered. TLT at new lows, as I stated Tuesday:

This sounds like a recording, but it’s because the trend is up – the 1, 2, 3, 5 year T-Bills are all ar more new highs since the 2008 highs in yield. And the 10 year yield has now gone to a new multi-year high at 3.05%. That 116.50 is a formidable support on TLT, it will give way, and really then will get a lot of institutions to question their belief in a low rate environment remaining in place. I have kept a small TLT put position, and have no plans to change that.”

I’m keeping my put position. For people with a full position, different story. Yes we could see a spring out of here, but to me, it will all be part of redistribution, as it has been since the first big low in the bear market. That low was in early Dec 2016. The rally out of there – redistrib. All the rallies since – redistrib. And with less and less powerful waves out of the low. Study the charts, look at what I’m discussing.

The bond market, and this is not a high probability at all, but we could see a “crash” selloff like in Nov/Dec 2016. Bonds move very slowly usually, and will not crash so to speak, but they can have multi-week runs – RUNNER STOCK, right? Are you studying this stuff? To me, the small stocks and the index options, are by far the best teachers, even if not trading them.

And with that, bought the spike low spring in SPY this morning, looking for a “throwback rally”. And using pure supp/res, next week’s calls 273, I left a fair amount of profit on the table, selling 1/2 at 272.25 and then 272.75. The area above 273 is concerning to me. QQQ above 169.50. I (almost) always exit too early, but hate exiting too late, winner or loser same approach.

And small stocks, some real crappers rallying today. CARV is junk, but pure daytrading always opportunities. I tried to do a bounce trade after the #1 EA at around 7.75. My order was at 5,70, did not get filled. My parameter was a bounce back to the high, so very favorable risk/reward. It did go to a new high, and more EA, it is in the #3 area now. BTW, no shares to short which I could find. That will likely be the better trade with this thing.

Are you studying the potential opportunities in bounce trades? I’ve discussed these on and on. They can be for ANY time-frames. And yes, they are very tough. This business of trading has never been easy for me, I’ve always struggled, made tons of mistakes, and have had to “plow thru”. You either want it or you do not. It’s really that “simple”. Studying, studying,,,,

 

 

BTW, trading is about patterns (setups), NOT chart patterns, trading patterns. Huge difference. BLNK has the exact trading pattern 2 days in a row – exact.

 

 

Everything in trading is about probabilities, hence trading patterns/setups. With the smaller stocks, with the real junk ones like CARV, a runner on day one of the move, which closes strongly (upper 25% of the day’s range) has a very high probability of rallying the next day at least early on. On day two also, but less probability, day three less again. And on day 4, that is when the probability of the potential short starts to ramp up. Especially when it opens red and holds there thru the morning. And again with time-frames, there is actually, on a sort of scalp type of trade, a really good setup right near the open of a spike low buy on a gap lower.

CARV was day one yesterday. BLNK has been doing the other side of the PROBABILITIES. It has not broken, even tho the original run day, this time, was on 5/7. And it even had a huge EA on 5/8. It’s all probabilities.

Bond yields went to more multi-year/decade highs yesterday. There is nobody who has been as adamant as I about a multi-decade bear market in bonds, even thru the intermediate price rallies since 12/16. Anyone who has believed in my work would have maintained an overall bearish perspective. TLT more new lows yesterday. Yields having a bit of a backup today, but the 10 year reached 3.125% and the 30 hit 3.27%. Several months ago, I gave some point and figure yield targets. And again, we are in spring territory for TLT, keep that in mind. Bounce very possible.

 

 

On the 4/2 stock list which you guys all had access to, two of the sectors were specialty retailers and energy shares, and what a run those sectors have had for any of you who did the work with that list which I did the “filtering” for:

I’m going thru charts, pondering, studying earnings, considering sectors, looking for what will be the leaders coming out of the “correction” in the market. Those specialty retailers I’ve been discussing, also some oil stocks with crude in that big accum area, and some green tech stocks. Also tech and IPOs. And the ones with relative strength. I will go more in depth with these, put them into sectors, but some ideas for now.

BFAM, RSPP, MEOH, VIPS, VNOM, LE, LULU, URBN, AEO, ANF, GES, CTRN, M, NWY, PEN, TEAM, DBX, FIVE, FND, SQ, SGH, WHD, IQ, FUSZ, AMAG, ETFC, INSM, MU, ETSY, CREE, INTC, OBE, LOXO, CLNE, GWPH, ARQL, WDAY, CLDR, EC.

In general that list was about earnings growth/potential, rel strength, and accum/reaccum.

What a list, especially with the stock market not in a current uptrend part of the overall massive bull. Seriously consider that aspect of it.

Just to name a few, and these will be continually updated with developments, since the list, (at the arrows for the list) WHD up 40%:

 

 

M, arrow, is at new highs:

 

 

 

LOXO, up 50%, and blasting to more all-time highs. LOXO had cancer news:

 

 

GWPH up 40%:

 

 

 

PEN up 30%, more new highs:

 

 

A holding of mine for 6 months, IMMU, discussed 100x, more new highs, so many opportunities to buy this thing over the last year:

 

Some other energy shares for a watchlist, EPE and EGY discussed several times recently, several springs. Nice accum areas, SOSes, upside of accum, also WTI, SN not as big of accum, HP has been/was a stellar performer during crude oil’s selloff and then accum (now uptrend):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

mm
About traderscott 974 Articles
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day. Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.

9 Comments

  1. Good day Scott. Got a time frame question and distribution/accumulation question.(Morphing)
    I hope my question was clear on the video.
    On a 5 min it sounds that it started as a accumulation than it stated to morph into re-distribution.
    Maybe my judgement is cloudy and entirely skewed.

    http://dai.ly/x6kj022

    • Still can’t see it. Just post a chart and then you tell me what you are seeing. And keep in mind, do you have a specific trade setup? And do you have the probabilities with that setup? And are you doing simple analysis, which you understand? So you tell me then what you are doing.

    • Raphael you are spending a lot of time on the videos, but you are wasting your time. Please listen to me when I tell you that you have got to develop one solid trade setup and master that. Period. You are off focus, put your great work ethic to good use. You know enough to do well at this business. Do you even have a trading plan? With all of the outstanding strong stocks I keep giving out, why are you not focusing solely on those? Stick to the strong stocks, ignore everything else. So many opportunities in strong stocks.

  2. “Do you even have a trading plan?”
    To me the words “trading plan” is ambiguous at best
    How do you define “trading plan”?

    why are you not focusing solely on those?
    I don’t have a good answer other than bitcoin being a 24H market thus more opportunities to paper trade(trade) after work.

    • I will do another post about a trading plan, but it really is something you/we must develop on your/our own.
      As to BTC, I have tried to get you to understand this – focus solely on the strong stocks at first. You will understand, at some point, why I have constantly repeated that. And this thing is about having that one or two specific setups, that needs to be your focus. I’m providing the stocks, you have no idea how much easier I have made this for everyone, yet almost no one appears to be taking advantage of the gift right in front of them. Really a shame, I will not be doing this writing stuff forever, so much time wasted. When I started in this, NO ONE made it easier for me. That’s why it took me so long to become competent.

  3. “As to BTC, I have tried to get you to understand this – focus solely on the strong stocks at first.”
    I was thinking to myself about bitcoin after you had left this post. At this point I realized that the root cause of me focusing on BTC is emotionally due to a loss that I had on it.

    I’m in a PROCESS of training my brain to be less emotionally responsive in trades.
    BTW I have created a watch list of strong stocks. I try to look at it after work. The time frames I use to look at it daily are the 1 day fallowed by 1H chart(sometimes a 5 for details). To see if there is some bigger trades 1week+ shelf life.(possibly)Still long IMMU,loxo,EC,GRUB, SPY, ANF and stuck with BBY(Hate to sell close to big support).

    Question on ANF.
    A) A big sell off today. I did not see it coming.Can you point out on a chart the threats(SOW) beforehand that 7%+ selloff?
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/t9zF9AC8/

    B) Tell me if I’m incorrect. To my recent understanding I have to keep an eye on the market, the sector pertaining to an individual stock and the individual stock itself. For example pay attention to SPY, XLV(healthcare sector) and LOXO(individual stock).If so when a sector like XLV shows some SOW and/or is against a resistance; could that be a good reason to sell LOXO?

Leave a Reply