The bond market is by far the biggest market in the world and with the continued push higher in rates it continues to have far-ranging effects. Many years ago, I began discussing how the upcoming bond bear market would be very bullish, not bearish, long-term on almost every other market. Long-term. Short-term, with the pervasive view of virtually everybody that rising rates are bearish for commodities and the stock market, it would cause the relatively shorter-term selling. Crude oil, with its beautiful accum area now below it, not like in gold, is continuing to power higher, pushing toward its 75 res area.
This has been my view for a long time about the bond market effects, and the shorter-term selling being opportunities. So with 1 year T-Bills now at 2.31% and heading much higher, this was my view 2 1/2 years ago, when that rate was at 0.4%, yes 0.4%:
“And explode they have – 3 month, 6 month and 1 year TBills are at 7 year highs – up by 10 -20 times from the lows. And to repeat the Fed does NOT lead the bond market, they FOLLOW. And when the Fed does catch up to the bond market, short term rates will begin to move even higher.”
And yesterday the 10 year, yes more new yield highs:
And as the rates are having their effects on the stock market for now, I thought that, as the gold permabulls always tell us, stock market weakness is always bullish for gold:
This gold selling will allow the so needed sentiment shift to re-energize it for later this year.
The stock market is the greatest wealth builder on this planet. I left a stock list on 4/2 for any of you to study, research and use for potential buys in this, my view, reaccum area. It was concentrated on specialty retailers and smaller energy shares. Those 2 sectors are the two which I went over and over and over last summer as to how bullish I was on them, and to use the low prices to accumulate them, yet hardly anyone understood the great opportunity right under their noses. Now, in a rear-view mirror, we’re seeing why I was saying that.
All the names on the list had one thing specifically in common. A large/huge accum area.
Some of those charts are below, and will keep updating over time. Many of the stocks on that list have hit new highs, or new all-time highs – like VNOM, MEOH, EC (long), GES, AEO. LE has been a big laggard. M, out with earnings and a new high. BOOT is not on the list, but new highs there, yet another retailer.