The conference call today was quite productive. The link is below.
We discussed reaccumulation and breakouts and how they are intertwined. Also discussed were pullbacks of the breakouts, and specifically how those will set up well, and what triggers to use to enter a trade. For instance the stock market copied and pasted down below, and crude oil, into the early June lows, here were my comments:
“As I discussed – well in advance – as crude oil was falling in early June – it will be a reaccum area within the major uptrend. And $75 then on the next rally. Also, I explained in detail one of my favorite setups. In the chart I put the support area which I need to see broken to the downside to then set up the next bottom – 66.53. And explained that setup – it is a breakout setup. First the breakout, everyone gets bullish and buys from the strong hands. And then the backup/retest back into the top 1/3 of the OLD trading range. The masses then get shaken out and sell right back to the strong hands, as the bottom process unfolds in the top 1/3 of the OLD range:
All of this given to you – well in advance:
“The back up in crude oil, to me. is reaccum within a major uptrend. More back up into the previous range would shake more people out and help strengthen it for the next push into $75. So many oil shares have been given to you over the last few months, and those are my focus also into backups. I continue to avoid the oil majors, no interest in them.”
And comments about the stock market:
“From comments from several months ago:
“The bond market is in a secular bear market. The stock market is in a secular bull. The bear market in bonds will not kill he secular stock bull, but it will cause pauses, corrections, selloffs, reaccum areas. And the brilliant analysts will continue to claim higher interest rates are negative for stocks. While at the same time they will claim that the huge stock market rally since March 2009 was “because of the Fed and quantitative easing”.
Currently the stock market is getting acclimated to the higher rates. Early in February, right into the lows, I said that the secular bull is still intact, and to use the next several months to slowly accumulate into the weakness. We are going to more new highs this year.
While the horde of incompetents, right into the beautiful #1, 2 reaccum lows in early February were talking about crashes, I was discussing the exact opposite. And I was not saying maybe, could be, using question marks. Anybody listening to me, and/or doing their own work with my guidance, has known for 3 months that this is/was an outstanding buying opportunity. Pretty good guidance. If you are getting your guidance elsewhere, good luck.
Some excerpts from the first week in February:
“In the meantime, I do not remotely believe the bull market in stocks is over, not even close, but I do believe volatilty is here to stay, and I do believe in opportunities being more available going forward.
“It is the low rates, especially the last few years, which has smothered volatilty. That is history….Mondays after a big Friday selloff can often be a turn around day. And the retest on Tuesday.”
“I believe stocks are in a major bull market, nothing changed there. The stock market will continue to be volatile. I believe this whole area, is reaccum..”
“And with the “huge top” that the permabears keep claiming in indexes still ongoing, yet the IWM keeps pushing higher. Is it angling up? Yes. Are you paying attention to my lessons? Were you swayed by the stupid comments all around in February about the “break in the trendlines”? Trendlines, when used conventionally, are useless“:
And numerous times recently I discussed how the stock market, once the SPY got back to 280, would go into a “small reaccum area. It needed to re-energize itself.” The tariffs are a “perfect cover” for this to occur. At the same time. yes they will certainly have the shorter-term effects on the market in general, and more so certain sectors, like the Chinese shares, or tech stocks. These are opportunities, but markets/trading – all about trade setups, not guessing and looking at what the outcome will be down the road. But patience in “the now” and waiting for the setup to unfold. Exactly what I had been saying about crude oil for several weeks before the beautiful bottom, discussed below.
For the conference call click here.