There will be some things repeated, the business of learning trading is about repetition. But only the repetition of the things which will get us where we want to go. And working, studying, researching – that part of trading is awesome. It’s what keeps me going at this point. Otherwise, I’d go and enjoy something else in life. What does the work consist of which most people do in markets? Cruising around the internet looking for some article or post about what someone’s guesses and predictions about markets or stocks are – that is not work. That’s entertainment. If someone is viewing it in this manner, great. But most people actually believe they are doing something productive with that.
As the stock market had another melt-up day yesterday, and now closing in on some resistance, IWM and QQQ all-time high, SPY 280, let’s review what has been discussed since the 2/6 and 2/9 #1 and #2 EAs:
What did I discuss about the stock market, right into the lows in early February (first arrow)? – “this is a bull market, it will be reaccum, this is EA #1, this is EA#2, it is NOT the end of the bull market”.
When did I put out my excellent stock list? – 4/2, the very low day of the retest (second arrow).
What did I discuss about the stock market on 6/13, right into the highs (third arrow)? – “it’s time to get cautious, but it will be a small reaccum area“.
The trend in the stock market is up, the trend in crude oil is up, I have given so many symbols since my belief in early February that the reaccum started in the market. I said it at the time, in posts, as it was happening – not in a rear view mirror. You think that was easy? It’s pure probabilities. So many opportunities, with my 4/2 stock list, and also with energy shares, and others which are posted at times. Are you taking notes and writing down symbols? And watching how they trade – how they set up via accum, reaccum, SOSes, springs, absorption. I will watch stocks, or markets, for weeks, months (or more) as they attempt to set up, in the way I look for that is. More and new symbols are useless if the work is not done on the ones already put out. There are and have been and will be tons of opportunities in those stocks. I do not just throw out symbols. I work very hard at this and give out symbols which I believe have the characteristics to have excellent opportunities – strong stocks, stocks in uptrends, stocks in accum – this is what your focus should be. Do not pick bottoms, wait for the upside. Most people love trying to pick a bottom. I actually believe they feel academically superior to the rest of us, like only someone brilliant can do that. So you wait for the upside, and use all of the tools which I have taught here, or whatever tools you are comfortable with. This is a very tough business. I’ve been doing it a long time, and it has never been easy, only easier. This business of trading, eventually, gave me a lot of freedom and choices. It takes time, patience, and getting up and working – consistently.
Those energy stock symbols given out – several new highs in them for the move from my first posting – SN, SM, WHD, CRC.
I am going to repeat some stuff, because it does not seem to be sinking in. This business is very tough. Mistakes, errors, losses – all part of it. There is no certainty. The goal is to be on the right side of things (the frontside of the trend, the time-frame super important here). But geez, when people all over the internet are almost always wrong, why do they have so many admirers. Truly bizarre.
All I can do is put out the work, after that – how much people believe in it, how close of attention people pay, how hard people work, what people do with it – is out of my hands.
According to the financial media and all the popular market websites, who scared people into selling rather than buying over the last few weeks, and now that they totally missed the bottom and the best part of the opportunity, and maybe time to book a few profits into strength when we get to resistance, so what is their excuse – “the trade turmoil is now on the backburner”. Total incompetence. So while all over the place, when you guys were going to your other websites, they were telling you how bearish that the tariffs were. The people who are reading the junk about markets all over the internet, I do not understand why. I told you over and over – “this tariff stuff is noise, it will be a small reaccumulation, use the selling to step into.” Yes, there will be more tariff “news” and yes it is now earnings season, and yes more incompetent selling waves. All noise, use it to your advantage, just like I’ve been practically pleading with you to do. The tariff nonsense at this point is meaningless:
“Whether it portends an end to the postwar trading system is unclear. Many economists are skeptical. They also doubt the trade war will plunge the U.S. economy into recession. The direct effect of the tariffs — which will raise prices, inspire retaliation and dampen some production — is “tiny,” says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Markit, a consulting firm.
Do some simple arithmetic, he says. A 25 percent tariff (tax) on $50 billion of Chinese exports totals $12.5 billion; 10 percent on $200 billion of exports is $20 billion. Together, that’s $32.5 billion, not much in a $20 trillion U.S. economy.“
AFTER first getting cautious at SPY 280, I then discussed over and over and over and over, that the tariffs are noise overall, the selling caused by that news will create buying opportunities. For closing in on 10 years now, I have said the same thing about the stock market – it’s a bull market. How I became one of the lone defenders of this stock market bull, who knows. But I have seen people, way more respected than I am, constantly for years now claiming it’s a bubble, it’s overvalued, it’s going up because of QE, it’s going up because of low interest rates, it’s going up because of the PPT, and I have said – it’s a bull market. Every selloff has been reaccumulation.
A month ago, into the highs when I got cautious, what did I say – It would be real helpful/re-energizing for the market to do another SHORT-TERM reaccumulation:
From 6/13 at 12:25 PM:
“So having said that. The market has had a really big rally since 4/2, back into 280. QQQ and IWM new highs. I believe the trend is still up, but this is no longer a high probability area for new position trade type entries. I did some selling, in GALT for instance which I was holding. Now I’m looking for some broader setups, a bit deeper, for positions that is. Short-term stuff, daytrade, always those opportunities. Also, a lot, I mean a lot of stocks are working currently. Too many? Maybe. It would be real helpful/re-energizing for the market to do another short-term reaccumulation.”
The big financials, along with the “‘tariff stocks” has really held back the bigger type stock indexes, especially the DJI. One big reason that the big banks have struggled – the bond market rally, the yield curve.
The 3 arrows on the right were where I was basically pleading with people who had big TLT put positions to sell those puts. And I repeated several times to leave the bond market alone for a few months if you are looking to get short – it needed to rally, and was down in a “formidable support area, 116.50 TLT” and the totally incompetent analysts and gold websites were extremely bearish. It now is in the process of resetting for the next push down and thru 116.50. This upper area is nothing like my original shorts in TLT in the 128+ area. Those were pretty spectacular setups. They were broad, 123, lots of “breathing room” to fall, the 116.50 (3.05% on the 10 year) was my target, again lots of room. In here, I feel like it does not have that same kind of breathing room. But the redistribution is moving along. The banks are starting to feel it.
Regarding crude oil right into the lows and with the shares, given out were several energy symbols – what have I been saying, like with the stock market – it is reaccumulation. All I can do is put out the work.
Even on Friday, for a short-term opportunity, along with the specific support drawn in:
From Friday morning’s comments:
“And (crude oil) back into a small support shelf.”
Friday morning’s chart:
Anyone trading leveraged oil, a great spring on Friday, a few ticks below the 72.15 support that I drew in Friday morning:
Several stocks have been given the last few months, like – VNOM, WHD, EPE, EC, EGY, CRC, CQH, SM, SN.
Since first posting, EPE up 50% and EGY up 100%.
“And those small energy shares are outstanding opportunities. Yesterday’s premarket I posted 2 more of them, EGY and EPE. EGY, +30%, was the #3 stock of the day, (BLNK, +50%, also posted yesterday, the #2 stock of the day). EPE was down in the early part of the day, ripe for buying, then closed up 4%. And after the close came out with solid earnings guidance. Big accum area in EGY, less so in EPE, and both stocks had opportunities yesterday, anyone who read yesterday’s post had an opportunity, when crude had an emotional spike lower before the announcement. All I can do is lay out the opportunities.”
“With the selloff in crude, it is allowing for backups in the shares, I’ve posted numerous stocks if you are keeping a list you know which ones I follow. The trend is up in the sector.”
“Many many energy shares have beautiful structures, accum, reaccum, SOSes. I have listed numerous symbols, if you are paying attention you are long or watching closely. A few more, SM, CRC. And CQH, which has no debt, yields over 5%, has a 3 year growth of 71%, 2500% growth rate last quarter, AND accum, reaccum, SOSes, absorption.”
“The back up in crude oil, to me. is reaccum within a major uptrend. More back up into the previous range would shake more people out and help strengthen it for the next push into $75. So many oil shares have been given to you over the last few months, and those are my focus also into backups. I continue to avoid the oil majors, no interest in them.”