Bonds, especially government bonds, are the most bearish market (long-term) I have ever seen – by far. The next couple of decades, the gazillions in capital slowly fleeing the Titanic will have to go somewhere. For the stock market permabears, Bitcoin permabears, commodity permabears – is that so hard to figure out? These permabear geniuses have scared their followers to death, as so many people are always walking around afraid of their own shadow. Then, of course, they have a totally negative view of the world, and they just sit on their rear ends missing tons of opportunities. The Western countries are a mess, but the East is a magnificent situation. And specifically regarding the stock market, into the next big selloff (and there will be one), the permabears will be gloating, and their followers will miss an oustanding (investable) buying opportunity. Are you folks even aware of the incredible rallies there have been in our favorite sectors, like pot stocks, green tech, energy, retailers, crypto-stocks? And there have been/will be multitudes of trading opportunities in many sectors.
As to yesterday in the bond market, they were getting clobbered in the morning, and prices were heading back into support. This was just as totally useless headlines all over the place were about “why” bonds were getting creamed. Who cares?
I’m short bonds, long puts, but as I stated yesterday – “time for a bounce back up”.
January 10 Premarket:
Over and over and over for the last 26 months, I have stated that the 30+ year bull market in US short-term bonds is done, kaput, mort. And the same (belief) the last 14 months for the 10 and the 30 year. This is a huge deal, please listen to me. I have been adamant about this, as much as I have been about the massive stock market bull long-term, also for gold preparing itself for the true uptrend (starting….).
In the meantime, bonds are getting clobbered today, supposedly China is going to halt Treasury purchases. Who cares? – did I have insider knowledge about that when I clearly stated on 12/6 in the morning that I bought March 125 TLT puts? – and I have a decision to make about selling my TLT puts, as they are more than a double. Below….is what I’ve stated several times, and we’re closing in on that. But sort of like with the Euro, if we are going to blast thru…., a bounce here would set it up. I’ll leave a comment when I do sell. The 10 year is going to be the next one to break out, above 2.63. And then finally it will be the 30 year yield. I have gotten so many people calling me an idiot (and worse) when I have repeatedly stated that the rising rates are totally bullish for gold.
I was planning on talking USD today, and my comment from Jan 3rd –
“As far as the $, I believe we are headed to…., but a bounce from here would make it a higher probability event.”
and how I believed that bounce in the $ was coming to an end, but it beat me to it. (Another little bounce here is likely first.) And this is exactly what I meant with that video about the Euro – that it was into resistance, but a BACKUP FIRST in the Euro would make it a higher prob. trade to then….. That is what I was talking about.