Weekend Wrap Up & Outlook for the Week of May 14, 2017 (Video)

The Entry Points

The following weekend video takes a look at gold, silver, miners, currencies, and the stock market. The big picture posts referenced in the video are – finally time to buy gold, the huge bull market in stocks, and there are several recent pre-market comments recaps on the front page. And here is the awesome book talked about in the video – the best book ever about trading – “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”.

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About traderscott 503 Articles
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day. Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.

13 Comments

  1. A)So, is it better to stay away from individual stocks until there is a stock market pull back?
    B)Although Euro had plenty of EA before it broke support.What did you considered in deciding to wait for the break of support instead of just buying at support?

    By waiting for a break of support there is 2 possible scenarios.1st it breaks support and 2nd it bounce from or near the support.
    C)Suppose it did not break support and it bounced instead. From this point on what do you do ?(scratch the trade or have a slightly delay entry point)?
    D)Regarding the dollar. What clues do we have in deciding if we are in an re-accumulation and not distribution?
    (I see some movements that resembles buying climax) Correct me if I’m wrong.

    • A) I don’t see why that would be a problem. Individual stocks are fine. Investment or trading. My point was it would open up a ton of new opportunities.
      B) Because it was a way better setup. If you can always wait for the good setup, and then the even better setup with the sell stops. Identify where those sell stops are likely to be. Like silver this past week.
      C) For me., let it go, unless it has another great setup after a rally – maybe trend absorption. And in the video I talked about the great SOS. Look at the follow thru this morning. And that trend absorption thing was too erratic for me.
      D) Time frames Raphael. Remember back in December, I wrote several posts about how I expected an upthrust in the USD – literally said I was anticipating that to happen. The reaction should not have been a surprise to anyone. So there were all kinds of trading opportunities into the buying climax up at the high. But time frames – which time frame are we talking about. On a big picture, my belief is an overall uptrend from the March 2008 lows. So to me it’s a reaction. Maybe I’m wrong and the bears are right. Then you are correct, this is distribution. I’m very glad to see you pick these things out. Remember how I keep saying this business is not at all easy. A 97 handle is still a possibility. You just have to do your work and believe in it. The weirdness in markets is very tough on a day-to-day basis.

    • By looking at the question A) on may 15 on this video you can see I was a little concerned that something like today with the markets would happen.
      Luckily the Stock market sell off today stomp me out of only 3 very small positions.
      I guess it would be better to had waited for a pull-back first.
      I’m trying to find a way to prevent this from happening again any idea?
      To be more specific.Staying out of stocks that are listed on the SPX Nasdaq DJI and Russel 2000 until a pullback a good Idea?

      • I’ll do this in 2 parts, with other considerations next. OK. Yes, I was remiss in my answer. It needs more clarity. But first off, taking small losses is a huge key to this business. Right there is TRADING SKILLS, it is supremely important. Why? Because markets are weird. The weirdness is a destroyer for most accounts.
        If you are going for a little bigger time frame trades, and not daytrading or overnight trading, then the big name stocks generally will move with the overall market. That situation helped a short in AMD today. But there are always individual opportunities like PULM, ETRM, etc. So for what you’re asking then, yes about the pullback. And remember your time frame for the trade. Are you looking for a longer term position, or a few days. If a few days, then a smaller reaction could be sufficient. But longer term, that’s exactly my point about where this market is, on a long term basis, most of the index components are WAY overextended. And if you wonder why i’m so focused on daytrading right now – that is the reason. I do not want to have much capital sitting in stocks at these levels. All of Wall Street is focused on what is relatively cheaper. Who wants relatively cheaper. And buying AMZN now as an investment. Are you kidding. Trading it, then fine. But the small stocks move so much better, and they are followed by almost no one. Meaning – tons of inefficient stocks. But as an investor, we also have to have a fundamental case for it. The shorter and shorter the time frame, the more the pure chart, supp/res becomes almost everything.

        • So to make sure this time about things. Good job with the small losses, regardless of tomorrow’s action. There are always opportunities.
          I have little interest in any bigger stocks now until a very large correction, except for potentially very short term. And the smaller stocks are much better for that. Also occasionally a special situation like FSLR last month. And it took a hit today with the market. On a shorter term basis, yes the pullbacks, definitely. The problem once again is where we are in the market overall. Several times I have given this time frame of mid-March thru May for a concerning area to put in the high. So I’m not overextended at all now. And as always, if we don’t get the much bigger selloff, fine, then we have that situation to deal with and trade it as is. There are no shortages of opportunities. But to emphasize, yes on the pullbacks. Even if someone is a breakout buyer the pullbacks create the technical process to allow the WAY better probabilities.
          So these are the ways to prevent/mitigate from happening. Be patient, very patient, with the setup. It doesn’t matter whatever way we do this business, it’s always about the setup. And keep going over and over all of the types of setups and trades to keep building up your arsenal. It will pay huge “dividends” in a relatively short time actually.
          And yes, the index stocks move with the indexes. Those stocks are watched by literally trillions in capital. You have to have a way to do things differently. And there are ways certainly. Along with fundamental work. The shorter the time frame, it basically comes down to support/resistance – 1-5 minute charts. The more you move up, the more everything else comes into play.
          Lastly start thinking about these stocks on a relative performance basis. The better stocks “hold up” better in the selling waves for the market. And visa versa, for shorting. I’ve been doing both.

          • There are always individual opportunities like PULM Stevie did an overnight trade, I did a daytrade in it and held some, there was ETRM, a quick trade in JNUG into the gap this afternoon. Maybe CYTR from yesterday comments. So there are opportunities away from the big index components. It’s not a good idea to be wedded to much of anything in this business except for risk.

  2. Got a couple question regarding timing.
    A)To paint a scenario let’s say someone missed the entry point of 16.1 area for silver.Supposed 3-4 days had passed and silver is trading at 16.65.At this point is it still worth going long?
    In other words when is it too late to catch the move?
    B)With the same conditions of the past question.What If I got in at 16.1 but with only a small position. Would adding more to the position a bad idea despite trading at a higher price?

  3. There are always trading opportunities available. But if the question is about the “below 16.10”, that setup is gone. Now it’s about the next one. But overall I never “chase”, that is for me the reason to wait for the much better setup. And I think you’ve been kind of asking about what happens if you see a trade set up/anticipate correctly, you do the work, it’s real close, but it just doesn’t quite do what you were waiting for, and then takes off without you? For me, if it takes off without me, then I wish it adieu and wait for the next opportunity. Don’t necessarily give up, but just understand that potential setup is gone. Remember this business is about the setups. It’s why people fail – because they’re focused on the move, the action, the money, but ignoring the risk, and missing it is too much to handle, and they jump in (usually too late). But it’s the setup, that’s it. Be stubborn with that notion.

    • B) Once again the setup, and I think you’re thinking big picture scenario. Then yes, it’s OK to add on higher. I prefer to add on higher with some profits in the “bank”, but your question is valid. And yes, but just make sure you have a distinct plan overall.

  4. It’s fine. Your questions are easy to understand. I think that you can edit your own comments? At least I think so.

    • Not once submitted.
      Not sure but I’m suspecting that the 5 min edit- cancellation feature is not working properly.
      Even after the cancellation still sends the message.(further confirmation needed)

        • Definitely stops, as silver especially “looked like it was going straight up” this morning, of course in the meantime the 1,2,3 sell progression in silver. I’d like to see the miners do another buy stop run still.

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