The stock market is out of control, just like a speeding truck barreling down a highway. Just take a glimpse at the various intense bullishness swirling around Wall Street.
LOL – can it get anymore bullish out there on Wall Street?
Just look at the various data and comments swirling around. The S&P 500 has risen an impressive 14 of the last 17 trading sessions. Runs like this have only occurred 13 times since 1990, according to Bloomberg data. The last time was earlier this year. It’s sick.
Citigroup is out with a new note predicting a 10% gain for the S&P 500 next year driven by corporate earnings. The investment bank remains overweight tech and financials. Financials is easy to get as they should earn more money as the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates. But tech? Has Citi seen the valuations and rising governmental risk on these names? Guess not, which underscores the rising levels of froth at the moment. Find yourself a good dividend paying stock (besides Apple (AAPL – Get Report) ) and get ready for the MLB playoffs.
Eat the Food, Don’t Invest In It
Sometimes in life you can just sense danger miles away before it happens.
That’s what I am detecting when it comes to food stocks, and there is more to it than Amazon (AMZN – Get Report) destruction. For the past two years there have been two different paths. One, companies such as General Mills (GIS – Get Report) and Kellogg’s (K – Get Report) — operating in categories (cereal) that people are migrating away from — battle increasingly challenging sales. Yet, their stocks don’t fall apart as the companies promise loads of expense cuts to offset sales weakness. Then down the other path is a company like PepsiCo (PEP – Get Report) . While it’s also in a challenged core business (soda) it has offsetting businesses playing in strong trends (snacking). Coupled with its own promises to cut costs, the stock rises despite overall industry pressure.
But the two paths are about to converge, and it could be painful for anyone holding onto these food stocks for their otherwise attractive dividends. Earnings estimates for the entire group badly need to be reset for 2018 due to: (1) diminishing areas to cut costs; (2) rising inflation; (3) increasingly disruptive retail setting; and (4) increasing influence of smaller, niche brands.
Here is my interview with PepsiCo Chief Financial Officer CFO Hugh Johnston. He is best in class, which is good because he may be about to navigate some choppy waters next year and will need all his skills.
Sports Stars and Stocks
What has amazed me recently is how little celebs and sports stars know about the stock market. Not just from like understanding what the hell book value is, but what stocks could be good buys. In fact, the more interviews TheStreet does with all sorts of influencers it becomes clear they aren’t sure what they own in terms of assets.
Here’s a new example:
Lately, former NBAer Lamar Odom has been thinking about life after basketball. “I’ve never really had the opportunity to have time on my own without that consistent basketball schedule. I’m learning to manage my time,” which involves “a lot of focus, a little bit of prayer and commitment,” Odom told TheStreet in an interview.
With that time, Odom said he’ll look into investing in stocks, especially companies like Apple and Microsoft (MSFT – Get Report) , and others in the tech sector. Also, he’s ready to learn about bitcoin.
Hat tip to Odom for being top notch in the interview with our Michelle Lodge. We would love him to stop on down our Wall Street headquarters to get some insight into the world of stock investing. We’re here to help.