Premarket Comments Recap – Gold, Yen 6/7-7/17

The Entry Points

One of the perks of being a subscriber of The Entry Points premium content is that Trader Scott sends our members comments every morning about market directions, movements and stocks we are watching for set ups. We release these comments in an edited form afterwards from time to time to allow our visitors a little peak into our premarket information:

 

6/7:  In yesterday’s afternoon comments, I gave my reasons for selling out of the rest of my JNUG position. But I always sell too early, and an emotional spike higher is possible. The emotional spikes, after a rally higher, are weak handed buyers, so they are quickly reversed and then some. Gold has been leading the complex since the December lows, which is my preference, as gold pulls the rest along with it. The others can pull at times, but it’s temporary. Gold and the Yen continue to be attached, as the Euro is much more on its own. A banking crisis in Europe will very much help gold, (and) along with gold, (also) the USD, the Yen, and Treasuries. But the Treasury rally from the December lows is running out of time.

6/9: Gold is continuing its downtrend from the $1295 talked about for a target (numerous times) from last month, and the potential now for a mid-month (tradeable) bottom.

6/12: It’s one of those unusual days in the big markets where almost everything is down, and the alleged correlations are in hiding. Basically the only things up are the oil shares, the junior miners, and the Yen. So despite the Yen being up, gold, and bonds are down a bit. And despite gold, the juniors are having a good day, and the lowly frackers are outperforming oil. The useless focus this week will once again be on central bankers, but this is the world we are in (for now). Is there even one person in the world who actually makes money via trading real money, who spends most of their time focused on QE, “overvalued stock markets”, Donald Trump, and CBs. If so, I’d like to meet this person. So while hedge funds, popular websites, and the financial media will completely waste their time focusing on CBs, we’ll keep working hard and trying to spot the potential for opportunities in markets.

6/13: I have no idea what the markets will do with this (Fed) number, but for PMs, this time period. I expect there to be a couple of lows set up. A good break below..could set up a quick rally..Silver below..But I do not expect a more solid low yet. Silver is much weaker. GDX below..is my first spot for a better shot at the miners. And any rallies after the Fed in PMs are not for buying for me.

6/15: Why do people time and time again do this to themselves in markets? Why do they enter markets with emotion? The news yesterday, even the Fed, is all noise. As per the latest couple premarkets, “the news today did not change my overall view of PMs – and I will not buy into any rallies after the Fed meeting”. The heavy selling volume yesterday after the Fed is quite concerning, and things need to play out. Yesterday was pure emotional crap. I came in with a bias to get short on rallies. I lost money on that at first, but then shorted GDX after the meeting. NUGT and JNUG were “HTB” yesterday. I still expect a couple of tradeable bottoms. And please ignore all of the crap news out there, and stick to facts.

6/22: The Yen and Gold are still very correlated, and will be for a while. Right before the Fed meeting and a few times after, I expressed my belief that we needed for gold to break below 1245 and silver below 16.40 and GDX below 22.10 to set up a good bounce. And still with the thought process of a couple of lows setting up a bigger low, when eventually viewed in a rear view mirror. The problem could be the miners, and silver to an extent with some other problems emerging. People piling into emerging markets after the big rally is pretty odd behavior. Along with the ridiculous assumptions about China’s inclusion in indexes (more about this stuff later). While my bearishness on crude, repeated several times, is still playing out – and not expecting the very solid low until this Fall at the earliest. That low should be the major retest of the $26 from 2/16, but at a much higher low. In the meantime there will continue to be bounces, but that persistent weakness in the shares has been quite concerning. And continuing to use rallies for shorting only (downtrend strategy). The frackers went to more new lows. And the market which continues to concern me is junk bonds, with energy, retailers, and telecom somewhat, as sectors which could hit high-yield. But this is a  situation where gold would shine, relatively-speaking. I continue to be very bullish on gold itself, bigger picture and using the selling waves for stashing away a little physical, and leave it. Miners and silver for trading only. I am not a believer in silver hoarding”stacking”.

6/23: My approach to PMs -I have been viewing the miners with a  trading range mentality, except for that very unique end of 2015/Jan 2016 deal. And why has treating them as just trading vehicles worked so well? People aren’t paying attention to the 3 trends – up, down, and trading range. If the market is in a trading range overall, then it’s for trading, right? And yes we should start to see the true uptrend kick in for gold itself this year. Not sure about miners yet tho, but it’s coming fairly soon. Right when everyone is convinced they’re going to be stuck in this area forever. So I gave the area to watch for GDX – below 22.10 would set things up. And being patient below there, or on the gap up and reaction yesterday were the setups. I have a small long NUGT position, and do expect more bounce, but a better bottom coming up.

6/27: Gold -so we can see the “power” of a SC and retesting – the following is from yesterday’s premarket with the included chart which at the time was only a setup: “The action appears short-term climactic, with a SC and retest – you can see the support area on the retest.” And gold retested and is rallying today. So once again, give it some time. But to point out, the media, bloggers, websites are just noise. Use all of these tools we continue to roll out, and employ them in your own judgement. Websites yesterday were freaking about the “notional” “dumping” of “paper gold”. In the meantime, I bought JNUG on the selloff yesterday – small position, in line with our emphasis now to get people to ignore their small accounts and have confidence to just trade. I held off from selling yesterday to avoid the small account daytrading rules, but will be looking to sell. I’ll update later. Today again the correlations are out of whack, bonds are getting hit, USDJPY up, but nearing resistance, yet gold is up. QQQ needs to be watched.

6/28: There is a discussion about gold in last night’s video. Gold is getting closer and closer to the second half and a much better/trending market. But the miners still have some work to do. I’m looking to short, but only into a rally which lasts a bit, and first gets well thru 22.80 GDX. I’m in no hurry.

6/29:  ..this is still a cautionary time period for gold. For gold itself likely range trading (working off supply), while miners is about patiently waiting for the next setup. And this continued range trading is getting people constantly calling for “breakout”. It is still range trading to me, and buying the backups. So GDX back into the gap would be my first potential opportunity, then a rally and toward then the bottom of the bigger range. But still trading range mentality continuing.

7/3: On this holiday shortened Monday, gold is continuing to get hit, and is still in an unfavorable time frame until next week. Support area is 1214, and they may try to start a higher support first, and then break that before shooting for pushing thru 1214. This is how more powerful lows set up, because of the weak hands getting weird.

7/6: This gold update video discusses the general situation in gold currently. And as laid out yesterday in the premarket – “a selloff in miners could set something up” – and I used the break below support in GDXJ yesterday to buy JNUG. There will be a video about some of this stuff later.

7/7: We’ll discuss the silver flash crash later, but the “jobs” number is out, and gold and the Yen both fell and rallied sharply and fell again. Gold traded right into the top of the trading range after going below the bottom of the range. Someone doing a good job trading futures had a very good day. I was just observing. It then broke the whole range and got back to the 1214 area. I bought some physical gold then, and that is for sitting. I’m looking to take another shot with miners (long) today.

7/10: From a time frame perspective, my belief is still for a tradeable bottom in gold this week – early. But a bigger bottom in about.. In….that has the potential for the best low since March. And a much bigger low in that December time frame once again. So we have to see all of the different technical indications, sentiment, and support/resistance situations, to see where we’re at. This stuff (markets) is never easy. The Yen and gold are still tied together, and don’t care about the Euro. The $-Yen has a pretty big resistance area approaching. Meaning another push lower in gold with that.

7/11Yen ($/Yen) is back into resistance, and a possible smaller reaction and another push higher for a bigger top. The situation of a top in this pair (bottom in the Yen) this week would help gold, but in the meantime the rally in this currency pair is weighing on gold. Otherwise my thoughts are the same for a tradeable low in gold this week, and a bigger low in about….

7/14: The Yen pair is pushing into more new lows (stronger) and this has been part of my belief about a gold trade “more than a bounce..”. We’ve been talking about how if a market is going to have a bigger move, it’s going to need to have backups. The backups shake people out. And we just have to know our own time-frame in a trade, and recognize the probability of something with some legs (potential). So right now gold is back above resistance/top of range. I’m trying to hold onto my miner long into a potential spike…Miners and silver still lagging gold.

7/17:  gold – rallying again this morning after the backup, it’s not gotten too emotional yet. My belief still – more than a .. When I got long gold 10 days ago at 1214 (talked about in 7/7 premarket), the chart looked “horrible”, now it looks “great”.

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About traderscott 643 Articles
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day. Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.

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